A University of Queensland-led study has revealed that future demand for ethanol biofuel could potentially expand sugarcane farming land in Brazil by 5 million hectares by 2030.
<a href="https://sees.uq.edu.au/" target="_blank">UQ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences</a> researcher Milton Aurelio Uba de Andrade Junior said that because Brazil produced&nbsp;ethanol from sugarcane, future biofuel demand would&nbsp;directly impact land use.
&ldquo;Our study has modelled scenarios forecasting future ethanol demand based on different trajectories for gross domestic product, population growth, fuel prices, blending policies, fleet composition and efficiency gains,&rdquo; he said.
&ldquo;A high-demand scenario fuelled by strong economic and population growth, soaring gasoline prices, and ambitious blending targets, could mean that current demand for ethanol in Brazil will be doubled by 2030.
&ldquo;If this scenario occurs, then Brazil will need an additional five million hectares of land for sugarcane crops to meet this high demand.&rdquo;
De Andrade Junior said that most of the additional sugarcane farms were likely to expand into pasturelands, minimising impact on native forests.
&ldquo;A key assumption of our modelling is that Brazil&rsquo;s land-use policies, such as the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning, will continue to promote the increase of agricultural yields while minimising environmental impacts,&rdquo; he said.
&ldquo;However, in the current context of high uncertainty on the environmental agenda, such land use policies need to be closely monitored and supported to ensure that the country&rsquo;s natural ecosystems and biodiversity remain protected.&rdquo;
The study published in <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519305452?dgcid=author" target="_blank">Energy Policy</a> was a collaboration between UQ, the <a href="https://www.iiasa.ac.at/" target="_blank">International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA - Austria)</a> and the <a href="http://www.inpe.br/" target="_blank">National Institute for Spatial Research (INPE - Brazil)</a>.

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Land use for sugarcane farming could increase by 5 million hectares by 2030 thanks to future demand for ethanol, according to a study led by the University of Queensland in Australia.

Ethanol fuels large-scale expansion of Brazil's farming land

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