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Analysis addresses RIN carryover and 2014 proposed RFS

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By Erin Voegele

December 31, 2013

Policy Business Markets 

A recent FarmDocDaily post addresses renewable identification number (RIN) stocks and the implications of the U.S. EPA's proposed 2014 volume requirements for the renewable fuel standard, predicting 1.7 billion RINS will be carried over into 2014.

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Overcoming the E10 blend wall is priority No. 1 for the ethanol industry, and progress is being made on two fronts. The number of retail stations offering E15 is growing in step with the number of 2014 vehicles rolling into showrooms E15 approved.

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A recent report authored by two University of California, Davis researchers found that compliance costs for the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) could increase rapidly in the future under certain circumstances.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the December issue of its Monthly Energy Review, reporting ethanol production, import and consumption data for the first nine months of the year.

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The U.S. EPA has published renewable identification number (RIN) generation data for November, reporting that both D3 cellulosic biofuel and D7 cellulosic diesel RINs were generated during the month.

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New Year, Renewed Challenges

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By Tom Buis, Growth Energy

December 25, 2013

The RFS always envisioned ethanol blends above 10 percent, even with decreasing gasoline consumption. But oil companies are doing everything they can to prevent E15 implementation. We must remain resilient and continue to battle for our industry.

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Consumer demand holding strong

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By Rick Kment, DTN

December 24, 2013

It is uncertain if ethanol futures will be able to hold the strong front month premium, as traders in the market scramble to secure short-term supplies. But the aggressive RBOB market has given traders confidence going into the holiday season.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration has updated its state energy profiles and added new analytical narratives on the energy sectors of each of the 50 states, the District of Columbia and five U.S. territories.

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CoBank, a national cooperative bank serving rural American industries, has published a report analyzing the possible economic impacts of the U.S. EPA's proposed 2014 renewable fuel standard (RFS) volume requirements.

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The Brazil ethanol industry saw record supplies for the 2013/2014 crush season just being wrapped up, and got a welcome boost from auto executives who said ethanol-powered cars are more viable for reducing pollution than electric vehicles.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the early release of its Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014), increasing its projections for biomass energy and other renewables. The analysis also predicts increased consumption of biofuels.

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Seeking protein value, domestic feeders are paying up to keep DDGS in their rations. Meanwhile, export markets remain brisk, container logistics continue to be a factor, and both RFS uncertainties and China's mounting regulatory pressures persist.

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Iowa's Biofuels Voice

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By Ron Kotrba

December 19, 2013

Monte Shaw, executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, has seen the U.S. ethanol industry grow from less than 2 billion gallons in 2000 to well over 13 billion gallons today. His focus now: growing the market and protecting the RFS.

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The Board of China New Energy announced it has entered into a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to acquire BAPP Ethanol Holdings Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Sino Distillery Group Ltd.

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Breaking Through the Blend Wall

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By Bob Dinneen

December 17, 2013

The ethanol industry's effort to overcome marketplace hurdles in 2014 will be aided by the largest corn crop in history, more auto companies providing E15 warranty coverage, and favorable economics for E85. Plus, the annual 'In/Out' list.

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What, if anything, will incentivize automakers to produce FFVs in the U.S. if and when corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) credits fade after model year 2016?

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The government of Spain recently filed a report on ethanol with the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's Global Information Network. The report addresses Spanish policy, production, and supply and demand data.

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Some shale gas plays not currently economic

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By Ben Straus, U.S. Energy Services

December 12, 2013

The ability to access energy from shale will drive down the cost of production for American industries. In the case of natural gas, however, the story is always complicated below the surface, and the rate of production has slowed.

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Several European biofuel groups are speaking out following the European Council's failure to reach a political agreement on how to account for indirect land use change (ILUC) in biofuel policy on Dec. 12.

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Corn market lackluster in November, but cash market strong

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By Jason Sagebiel, INTL FCStone Inc.

December 11, 2013

The month of November exhibited a lackluster market with a highly anticipated report due to the missed October USDA report. It offered a slightly bullish tone because some data reported was friendly relative to what the trade was expecting.

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The WASDE report raised projected corn imports by 5 million bushels based on a record Canadian corn crop. Corn for ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of weekly ethanol production since mid-October

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The U.S. Senate Committee on Environment & Public Works held a hearing Dec. 11 to consider the U.S. EPA's proposed rule to set 2014 volume requirements under the renewable fuel standard. The hearing featured testimony from several stakeholders.

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Murphy USA opens first Arkansas E15 station

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By Renewable Fuels Association

December 11, 2013

Murphy USA opened the first E15 (15 percent ethanol, 85 percent gasoline) station in Arkansas on Dec. 11. There are now more than 60 stations in 12 states registered to offer the higher level fuel blend.

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The Hatfields and McCoys

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By Mike Bryan

December 11, 2013

There will come a time when Big Oil and the ethanol industry come together and realize that the feud that has now gone on for nearly 30 years must come to an end. Until that time, the fight goes on.

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A study published by Agra CEAS Consulting shows that an uncertain policy environment in Europe is negatively impacting investment in first- and second-generation biofuels. Without additional investment, the E.U. is likely to miss its biofuel targets.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the December issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining the prior month's prediction that ethanol production will average 900,000 barrels per day in 2014.

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It is widely speculated that the EPA's proposed 2014 renewable volume obligations has rattled investor confidence in advanced biofuels, dampened retailer interest in E15 and E85, and placed added downward pressure on already low corn prices.

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Consulting firm E4tech has published a report that shows biofuels and vehicle efficiency will be essential in helping the European transportation sector reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and meet its decarbonizations targets.

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The spirit and intention of the renewable fuels standard was never to create a national biofuels program that would be unable to grow during periods when gasoline consumption declined.

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The U.S. EPA officially published the proposed rule Friday that would set the 2014 volumes for the renewable fuel standard (RFS), marking the opening of the 60-day comment period that will close Jan. 28.

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