It would be easy to assume that America’s ethanol industry grew slowly and steadily over time from a cottage industry of farm-based stills to its current 17.7-billion-gallon size, but it didn’t happen that way. The industry leaped forward in bursts of expansion when policy and marketplace opportunities aligned. The Clean Air Act amendments of 1990 launched the “oxygenated fuels” era in earnest. The nationwide replacement of MTBE in the early 2000s made E10 ubiquitous. And half a decade later, the creation of the Renewable Fuel Standard ushered in a multi-year period of plant construction that may never be equaled. Each seminal moment created a pronounced growth spike followed by a plateau, or levelling-off period, defined by efficiency gains, plant expansions and process improvements. And that’s basically where we are now, level and on the precipice of something big, not just straight line growth this time but real transformation.The age of sustainable aviation fuel is here, and all signs point to the fact that low-carbon ethanol—perhaps by sheer volume alone—will eventually become the world’s top SAF feedstock. Amid the rise of electric vehicles, predictions about the impending death of gasoline-powered vehicles have fallen woefully short. It’s not happening at the pace many envisioned. Nonetheless, ethanol industry leaders know there’s some truth, however distant, to an EV future. And they know SAF production can absorb any gallons lost to EVs over time. The idea is that as one market contracts, another will grow. The SAF industry will, in fact, need billions of gallons of feedstock. It takes about two gallons of ethanol to make one gallon of SAF, and the U.S. government has set a goal of replacing 100% of its fossil-based jet fuel—35 billion gallons—by 2050, starting with 3 billion gallons by the end of this decade. It’s possible that even the early target will not be achieved with lipid feedstocks alone, much less the ultimate goal. A lot of ethanol will be needed.This issue explores the role ethanol will have in America’s moonshot effort to build out its SAF industry. We start with “Giving Lift to 45Z,” on page 14, a look at how the essentially interim 40BSAF-GREET model is giving industry leaders a chance to recommend changes to the next iteration of the tax credit, 45Z, which will largely define the near-term viability of ethanol-based SAF. &nbsp;Then, in “Availability Advantage,” on page 22, our sources explain why ethanol is in a much stronger position than lipid feedstocks to bring SAF production up to a multi-billion-gallon scale. And already, ethanol-based SAF projects are popping up, like the proposed Illinois plant featured in our page-30 story, “Ethanol-to-Jet Aspirations.”Grain ethanol will be used for SAF production, no doubt, but cellulosic SAF is the ultimate prize. And production challenges aside, there should be more than enough of it. In “SAF’s Billion-Ton Question,” on page 30, we report on the U.S. DOE’s updated Billion-Ton Report, which concludes that there isn’t just 1 billion tons of non-grain biomass available in the U.S. for advanced biofuels production, but possibly 1.5 billion tons.Finally, be sure to check out “Milestone Meeting,” on page 44, a photo-heavy review of the 40th annual International Fuel Ethanol Workshop &amp; Expo. With 2,400 registered attendees, this year’s show was one of the largest, most vibrant industry gatherings of the last decade. Thanks for being there!Author: Tom Bryan&nbsp;&nbsp; President and Editor&nbsp;

2024-07-11 - Ethanol’s Next Big Thing Isn’t Just Growth, but Change (Ethanol Producer Magazine)

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The August issue of Ethanol Producer Magazine focuses on the next big market opportunity—sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). 

Ethanol’s Next Big Thing Isn’t Just Growth, but Change

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