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EIA revises outlook for 2025 fuel ethanol production in March STEO

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By Erin Voegele

March 13, 2025

Business Operations Markets 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its outlook for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 11. The estimates for 2024 fuel ethanol production and exports were revised up.

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On March 11, U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Neb., a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, joined U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith, R-Neb., at a press conference urging Congress to fulfill President Trump’s pledge to allow the sale of year-round E15.

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Growth Energy has offered the Trump administration a list of foreign trade barriers that should be targeted for elimination by the USTR, including those focused on Brazil’s tariffs, China’s import commitments and European caps on crop-based biofuels.

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The Nebraska ethanol and co-products industry remains a significant and stable force that contributes billions of dollars to the state’s economy, according to a new study from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

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The European Commission is working on new proposals for a Clean Industrial Deal, a strategy to strengthen the domestic supply of protein and measures to increase the competitiveness of EU agriculture.

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The U.S. exported 198.05 million gallons of ethanol and 811,480 metric tons of distillers grains in January, according to data released by the USDA on March 6. Ethanol exports were up for the month, while distillers grains exports were down.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has released data showing corn ethanol production continued to trend higher during the first half of February, accounting for nearly 96% of total ethanol production during the period.

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U.S. ethanol exports kicked off 2025 with momentum, climbing 2% in January to reach a nine-month high of 198.1 million gallons (mg), fueled by surging shipments to India. DDGS exports slipped to a 21-month low of 811,480 metric tons.

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The 22nd International Marketing Conference and 65th Annual Membership Meeting in mid-February welcomed U.S. Grains Council members in Austin, Texas, to plan for the upcoming year and discuss the United Nation’s Year of the Woman Farmer in 2026.

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The U.S. government on March 4 implemented new tariffs on a variety of goods from Canada, Mexico and China, including a 10% tariff on biofuels entering the U.S. from Canada. Future retaliatory tariffs could also impact U.S. biofuel exports.

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The Minnesota Senate Taxes Committee on March 3 voted to approved legislation that aims to extend and expand the state’s existing tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which was established in 2023.

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The U.K. government on March 3 opened a public consultation on a SAF revenue certainty scheme, which aims to reduce financial risks for emerging SAF producers. The scheme complements the U.K.’s SAF mandate, which came into force Jan. 1, 2025.

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U.S. Grains Council President and CEO Ryan LeGrand and USGC Director of Global Ethanol Export Development Alicia Koch traveled to Japan in January to participate in a roundtable meeting with energy and transportation sector leaders.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down slightly the week ending Feb. 21, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Feb. 26. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up 5% and exports were down 17%.

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Unleaded 88 sales in Minnesota reach new record in 2024

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By Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association

February 21, 2025

Annual Unleaded 88 sales in Minnesota reached a new milestone in 2024 with 142.75 million gallons sold, an increase of 11.63% from the previous record of 127.87 million gallons in 2023, according to the Minnesota Bio-Fuels Association.

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IRFA: Growing corn production outpaces stagnant US ethanol demand

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By Iowa Renewable Fuels Association

February 21, 2025

In 2024, Iowa ethanol production held steady at 4.6 billion gallons. While stagnant U.S. ethanol demand combined with increasing corn yields to has resulted in reductions to farm income, new ethanol markets can restore balance to the corn market.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up slightly the week ending Feb. 14, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Feb. 20. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up 2% and exports were down 8%.

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CARB on Feb. 18 announced that amendments to its LCFS program that were approved in November 2024 have been put on hold following the California Office of Administrative Law’s decision to disapprove the amendments due to clarity issues.

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The U.S. EIA increased its forecasts for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11. The outlook for domestic fuel ethanol blending in 2026 was revised down.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has reported that ethanol production was up during the second half of January with more than 96% of production coming from corn. Ethanol sales were also up for the full month.

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Lawmakers in both the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives on Feb. 13 reintroduced the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act. The bill aims to enable year-round sales of E15 on a nationwide basis.

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The Trump Administration has signaled it will consider reciprocal tariffs against Brazilian ethanol as part of its “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” for trade. The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy are welcoming the action.

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ITA postpones REEEAC meeting

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By Erin Voegele

February 17, 2025

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration on Feb. 12 announced it would postpone a meeting of the Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Advisory Committee that was scheduled to take place that day.

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RFA releases 2025 Ethanol Industry Outlook and Pocket Guide

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By Renewable Fuels Association

February 17, 2025

The Renewable Fuels Association released its 2025 Ethanol Industry Outlook and Pocket Guide today as a kickoff to the 30th annual National Ethanol Conference, taking place Feb. 17-19 in Nashville, Tennessee.

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The U.S. ethanol industry is positioned to continue capitalizing on growing global demand for ethanol, but export market headwinds could be on the horizon, according to a new report published by CoBank.

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The U.S. agricultural industry is a global leader in high-quality, affordable feed grains and their co-products including biofuels like ethanol and feed additives like distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS).

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In December, USGC Regional Ethanol Manager for the European Union, United Kingdom and Canada Stephanie Larson was in Calgary, Alberta in Canada to meet with leading fuel refiners and blenders to discuss their biofuel integration plans.

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New markets, export opportunities and policy changes are all things that will help build demand, said IRFA Executive Director Monte Shaw at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit. The nearest term demand driver should be year-round E15, he added.

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Brazil produced a record 36.83 billion liters (9.73 billion gallons) of ethanol in 2024, up 4.4% when compared to the previous year, according to data released by UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association.

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According to new statistical reports released by the RFA, the value of the U.S. ethanol industry’s exports rose to a peak of $7.5 billion in 2024, fueled by a record 1.91 billion gallons of ethanol exported in 2024.

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