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EIA maintains 2025 fuel ethanol production outlook, predicts continued strong exports through 2026

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By Erin Voegele

January 14, 2025

Operations Business 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 14. The agency revised up its estimate of 2024 fuel ethanol blending.

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The USDA on Jan. 10 awarded $120 million in grants to 516 projects under the Rural Energy for America Program. One of those awards will support an improvement project at Nebraska-based KAAPA Energy LLC.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down nearly 1% the week ending Jan. 3, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Jan. 8. Stocks of fuel ethanol expanded by more than 2% and exports were up nearly 57%.

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Aemetis Inc., a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company, announced on Jan. 7 that its Aemetis Biogas subsidiary commissioned three new dairy digesters in December 2024, increasing from nine to a total of 12 operating digesters.

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After restarting a former Valero plant in Wisconsin, ClonBio is retrofitting it in the image of the largest biorefinery in Europe.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production increased slightly the week ending Dec. 27, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Jan. 2. Ethanol stocks were up 2% and exports were down 40%.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has released data showing sugarcane processing and ethanol production were down in early December. Ethanol sales were up during the two-week period.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up slightly the week ending Dec. 20, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Dec. 27. Ethanol stocks were up nearly 2% and exports were up 2%.

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CropEnergies AG, Mannheim, is putting on hold the planned investment in a plant for the production of EnPro high protein animal feed at the production site of its subsidiary Ensus UK Ltd. in Wilton, U.K.

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The U.S. EPA on Dec. 19 released data showing that 2.03 billion RINs were generated under the RFS in November, up from 2.01 billion generated during the same month of 2023. Nearly 22.9 billion RINs were generated during the first 11 months of 2024.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production expanded by more than 2% the week ending Dec. 13, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Dec. 18. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down slightly, and exports were up nearly 33%.

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LanzaTech Global Inc. and ArcelorMittal S.A. on Dec. 11 announced that ArcelorMittal's commercial flagship Steelanol facility in Ghent, Belgium, has made its first barge shipment of ethanol. Ethanol production commenced at the facility in 2023.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up less than 1% the week ending Dec. 6, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Dec. 11. Stocks of fuel ethanol were down nearly 2% and exports were down more than 2%.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 fuel ethanol production and exports in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Dec. 10. The outlook for 2024 ethanol blending was revised down.

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Aemetis Inc. announced on Dec. 10 that its Aemetis Biogas subsidiary started producing renewable natural gas (RNG) from its tenth anaerobic digester built to process waste from a dairy in Stanislaus County, California.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production fell by 4% the week ending Nov. 29, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Dec. 4. Weekly ending stocks of ethanol were up nearly 1% and exports were down 20%.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has announced that sugarcane processing was down during the first half of November. Ethanol production was also down for the two-week period, but ethanol sales were up.

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Rex American Resources Inc. on Dec. 3 released fiscal Q3 financial results, reporting the three-month period was the second most profitable quarter in the company’s history. Work on the company’s capacity expansion and CCS projects is ongoing.

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U.S. ethanol and biodiesel capacity held steady in September, while renewable diesel capacity fell slightly, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on Nov. 29. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to the previous month.

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Dakota Spirit has announced the successful installation and operation of Alfa Laval's Prodec Oil Plus centrifuge technology, designed to optimize oil recovery at the plant. The system is achieving a 25% increase in oil recovery yield.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production expanded by 1% the week ending Nov. 22, setting a new record high, according to data released by the U.S. EIA Nov. 27. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up more than 1% and exports were up 10%.

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UNICA, the Brazilian sugarcane industry association, has announced sugarcane processing during the second half of October was down significantly as rain disrupted harvest activities. Ethanol production was down, but sales were up.

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Fluid Quip Technologies is pleased to announce that the São Martinho Boa Vista unit in Quirinópolis, Goiás, Brazil is exceeding projected performance including capacity and ethanol output.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was down slightly the week ending Nov. 15, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Nov. 20. Stocks of fuel ethanol were up more than 2% and exports were unchanged.

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Aemetis Inc. on Nov. 12 released Q3 financial results, reporting increased revenue for its California ethanol, India biodiesel and dairy RNG business segments. Development also continues on the company’s SAF and CCS projects.

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U.S. fuel ethanol production was up nearly 1% the week ending Nov. 8, setting a record high at 1.113 barrels per day, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on Nov. 14. Stocks were up slightly, and exports were up 32%.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 13. The forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol blending was revised up.

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Gevo Inc. released Q3 financial results on Nov. 7, discussing the impact of the conditional commitment for its DOE loan guarantee and confirming the company’s acquisition of Red Trail Energy remains on track to close in early 2025.

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Alto Ingredients Inc. on Nov. 6 released Q3 financial results, announcing an agreement with Vault 44.01 related to a CCS project in Illinois and indicating the company is considering idling its Idaho ethanol plant in response to falling margins.

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U.S. operable biofuels capacity was at 24.9 billion gallons per year in August, down slightly from the previous month, according to data released by the U.S EIA. Feedstock consumption was up when compared to the previous year.

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